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Prediction for CME (2023-03-12T19:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-03-12T19:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24210/-1
CME Note: CME going South in SOHO LASCO and SSW in STEREO A COR2. Its source is a gradual eruption of complex, mostly longitudinally oriented filament centered approximately around ~S25E20 (filament seems to extend from at least S5 to S50) and is seen starting to erupt in AIA 304 and 193 around 2023-03-12T18:30Z. Possible arrival is marked by an increase in B_total from 8 nT to 22.5 nT, reaching a maximum of 26 nT at 2023-03-15T05:02Z. Accompanied by an increase in speed from approximately 420 km/s to 550 km/s, an increase in density, and increase in temperature. This arrival could alternatively be attributed to a predicted glancing blow from 2023-03-13T10:53Z CME (possibly more less likely due to the earlier observed arrival at STEREO A). LASSOS discussion summary about this signature: this is likely a strong glancing blow from a CME, with a sheath and a shock-like structure.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-15T03:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-03-15T12:35Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/24218/1
Model Inputs:
2023-03-12T19:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-4.0, Lat.=-33.0, Speed=838.0, HalfAngle=26.0, Time21.5=2023-03-12T23:11Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-03-15T12:35Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =27.9 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.4
(kp)90=4
(kp)180=6

Other Location(s) Impact:
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-03-14T10:59Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-03-15T11:01Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230312_231200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 36.07 hour(s)
Difference: -8.78 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-03-13T15:44Z

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